Airdrops Blocked by Region: How Token Recipients Are Missing Out on Billions

 Users in the US have potentially missed out on $2.6 billion due to geographically restricted crypto airdrops, according to recent research. Experts have analyzed how much crypto investors could have earned if airdrops weren't geoblocked, examining major token distributions and their impact on US users.

Between 2020 and 2024, US users may have missed between $1.84 billion and $2.64 billion in potential profits due to geographic restrictions on token airdrops, according to a report from investment firm Dragonfly. Their estimates suggest US tax revenue losses range from $525 million to $1.38 billion as a result.

Airdrops are free token distributions to users of crypto projects, often used to drive engagement, test products, and incentivize participation. Many crypto projects block US users from receiving airdrops due to regulatory uncertainty. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), particularly under former President Joe Biden's administration, has viewed some airdrops as potential distribution of unregistered securities.

Dragonfly, a crypto-focused venture firm founded in 2018, manages approximately $3 billion in assets and has invested in over 120 blockchain projects.

The company's calculation methodology is based on on-chain data analysis and third-party sources. Analysts estimated the number of active crypto addresses in the US using metrics from Electric Capital and Dune Analytics dashboards. They calculated the share of US users among all active crypto addresses and analyzed 11 major US-restricted airdrops, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Blur, ApeCoin, dYdX, ENS, and LayerZero.

The report notes that geoblocking methods range from simple IP address restrictions, which users can bypass with VPNs, to stricter know-your-customer (KYC) verification requirements that completely exclude US residents from airdrops.

Based on these metrics, the number of addresses receiving tokens and the volume of distributions were determined. To account for geoblocking, a Geoblocking Adjustment Factor was applied to refine the proportion of US users not receiving airdrops.

For comparison, analysts examined the Uniswap (UNI) airdrop, which had no geoblocking and became one of the largest in crypto market history. Data was also compared with CoinGecko reports using different methodology based on maximum token values. Their estimates suggest US user losses could reach as high as $5.02 billion.

According to Dragonfly, airdrop geoblocking has affected between 920,000 and 5.2 million cryptocurrency holders in the US. In 2024, 22-24% of all active crypto wallets worldwide belonged to US users, but most major airdrops were inaccessible to them.

The report cites Tether as an example, which earned $6.2 billion in profit in 2024 but, being registered outside the US, paid no taxes to the American budget. Analysts believe this case clearly demonstrates how crypto companies are developing outside the US due to regulatory uncertainty, resulting in potential economic losses for the country.

What's your take on this situation? Are regulatory concerns justified, or is the US missing a major opportunity?

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