Market analysts predict another potential correction as trade policy uncertainty looms
Market Braces for Potential Second Dip
Cryptocurrency investors should prepare for potential turbulence ahead, as Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market may face another significant correction in early April, according to leading crypto analytics firm Nansen.
Following March's market pullback, analysts are now forecasting a 70% probability of another price dip after April 2nd – a date that coincides with President Trump's announced timeline for implementing new tariffs.
Tariff Tensions Create Market Uncertainty
The ongoing trade policy developments have emerged as a major source of market volatility. Economic uncertainty indices have reached concerning levels, with trade discussions becoming a focal point of investor anxiety.
Nansen's principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere explained the situation:
"In my main scenario, 70% subjective likelihood, I expect another leg down in crypto prices after April 2 after we reached a local bottom in mid-March. After this second correction, I expect we will be bottoming for the rest of the year (continuation of the bull market and revisit of the ATHs for BTC)."
While Treasury Secretary Bessent has noted that many U.S. trading partners are actively negotiating to reduce their own trade barriers – and Trump himself has hinted at potential "exemptions" – the market remains on edge.
Bull Market Still Intact Despite Headwinds
Despite these short-term concerns, Nansen's researchers maintain an optimistic long-term outlook. Their analysis suggests that after weathering another correction, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory, potentially testing previous all-time highs later this year.
The report highlights two key factors supporting this bullish view:
- Continued regulatory progress and institutional adoption in the U.S. cryptocurrency sector
- No clear recession signals in economic data, with growth slowing but still positive
Encouraging Technical Signals Emerge
Some positive technical indicators are already visible, according to the report. "The dip is being bought, for BTC and for U.S. equities," Barthere notes, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording "a seven-day streak of net inflows, a first since crypto prices peaked."
Recent economic data has also helped alleviate some broader market concerns. The latest U.S. March flash PMI report shows a score of 53.5, the highest in three months, suggesting a 1.9% annual growth rate. While quarterly growth remains somewhat muted at 1.5% due to weaker January and February performance, these figures don't indicate an imminent recession.
Uncertainty May Persist Through Q2
Nansen's research suggests the current period of uncertainty could extend well into the second quarter. Barthere estimates a "50/50 chance that we've passed the peak of trade policy uncertainty," adding that the full impact of tariff negotiations might not become clear until mid-year.
"We still see this peak uncertainty as more likely between April and June, especially with the start of U.S. tax cut package discussions," she wrote.
What's Your Trading Strategy for April?
Are you preparing for another potential dip, or do you see this as a buying opportunity before the next leg up? Has your investment approach changed in response to these tariff concerns?
Share your thoughts and strategies in the comments below!
#Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #CryptoTrading #TariffConcerns #BTC
0 Comments